Next OPEC+ ministerial meeting planned for April - RIA

Concerns about increased US shale oil production saw crude futures fall last week. Terry Wade  Reuters

Concerns about increased US shale oil production saw crude futures fall last week. Terry Wade Reuters

The backdrop is a tightening market amid a significant fall in Venezuelan production, geopolitical uncertainty, continuing falls in inventory levels and OPEC/Russia supply cuts. Kotak Institutional Equities said in a note on 8 December that it expects 23% growth in net profit of Nifty firms in fiscal 2019 and 17% in fiscal 2020, led by better operating conditions in many sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals and telecom, which had deteriorated sharply over fiscal years 2016-18.

The International Energy Agency also has a 100 number in its latest outlook, published Friday.

The total volume of global production increases by 42,000 barrels per day to 34.42 million barrels per day.

The "bullish case for crude is taking hold", says Liam Halligan in The Sunday Telegraph.

Opec ministers and friends meeting in Doha today to assess their output deal would be wise not to get too carried away.

However, besides the global growth, all other are short-term impacts.

When oil prices rise, markets panic and OPEC sweats.

Broad-based economic recovery is setting the world up for demand growth of 1.7 million barrels a day in 2018, and there's a chance that it could be as high as 2 million barrels, according to Energy Aspects.

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The global oil market is moving closer to reaching "a healthy balance between supply and demand", the IEA said, with "no clear sign yet of OPEC turning up the taps to cool down oil's rally".

But there could be one in the works. Rather than flooding the markets with their shale output and causing the oil prices to decline, they are likely to plan their output expansion judiciously, conserving much of their cash flows for capital investments in the future years. End-user retail prices are feeling this. "As for efforts to coordinate joint actions on the oil market, the previous year showed that this is a successful experiment", he told reporters, according to Russia's RIA Novosti news agency. The same is true in Europe.

Russian producers are also less well placed than their Arabian Gulf allies to take advantage of a gradual exit from the oil output curbs agreed with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This will lower the price in the middle of the year.

What happens to vehicle owners in rich nations isn't the only source of strain on demand.

The IEA said it expects this to soon top 10 million bpd, overtaking OPEC giant Saudi Arabia and its partner in the plan to trim the excess global supply, Russia.

Latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts 2018 could be "record-setting" for the USA as it looks set to dominate the global market. "We see that the market surplus is decreasing, but the market is not completely balanced yet and, of course, we need to continue monitoring the situation, " said the minister.

OPEC stated that higher oil prices has resulted to further supply to market, mainly in North America and particularly tight oil, including unconventional natural gas liquids (NGLs). They should not let the sweet smell of the success they have had so far go to their heads in Doha.

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