While the western Pennsylvania district normally leans Republican, Democrats are confident they can win Tuesday's election, in part because of the controversy surrounding Trump's term in office.
Saturday night, at a rally near Pittsburgh for congressional hopeful Rick Saccone, Trump all but announced his re-election bid, announcing his slogan - "Keep America Great!" - touting his accomplishments, berating "evil" Washington insiders and decrying the "fake news media".
After inviting Saccone to the stage, the Pennsylvanian sang the president's praises. "We have to have him".
The poll uses the most likely scenario - a turnout model that assumes performance in Pennsylvania's 18th District will be similar to other recent special elections in which Democratic turnout has generally exceeded that in past elections. The Cook Political Report ratesthe contest as a "toss up".
Lamb raised more than four times as much money as his opponent as of February 21, according to Federal Elections Commission documents. As of last week, he had spent $613,000 to Lamb's $3 million.
Likewise, if Lamb outperformed Clinton in the most heavily Democratic areas and most Republican areas, and, for the purposes of debate, took 72 percent of the vote in the bluest areas where Clinton only took 56 percent and 41 percent in the reddest areas where Clinton only took 26 percent, that would still only get Lamb within nine points.
"Our guys just can't take winning for granted", Trump Jr. said. "He's going to vote the party line".
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President Trump touted his decision last week to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. "They're not sending missiles up and I believe that, I believe that, I really do", Trump said.
Trump tweeted Friday, saying he was looking forward to the event. "Women! We love you!" "They have to get out there, they have to continue this fight, now, for the rest of '18, in '20 and in eight years we can make a big difference. Keep America Great, exclamation point", Trump said to cheers, "Keep America Great". Together they have 80,000 union members in the 18th District, which translates to that many potential voters. "I'm battle-tested and ready to serve".
Their candidates made strong showings past year in special congressional elections in Georgia, Kansas and Montana, but ultimately fell short in those Republican strongholds. Following a suit from the Pennsylvania League of Women Voters, the state Supreme Court struck down the old district map as a partisan gerrymandering. The results will not affect Republican control of the chamber.
Georgia's 6th district, held by former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, ultimately went to Republican Rep. Karen Handel following a bid from Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff that wound up going into a runoff. In fact, according to CNN, Trump delivered only "about five minutes" of what had been scripted.
"They had state judges that are Democrats change your voting districts - what kind of stuff is that?"
"Some countries have a very, very tough penalty - the ultimate penalty", Trump said.
Trump has privately endorsed Singapore's policy of executing dealers, as well, and according to the Post, "Singaporean representatives have briefed senior White House officials on their country's drug policies, which include treatment and education, but also the death penalty, and they provided a PowerPoint presentation on that country's laws". And, once again, Trump gave us another example of why Trump is his own - and potentially the GOP's - worst enemy.